NOW AVAILABLE: »The Solar Explosion«
The Exponential Perspective on the Mergence of Solar Technology and AI
Dear Readers,
No regular Skywert Briefing today, but an announcement.
I am pleased to announce the publication of the Skywert Solar Technology Report as a compact book entitled "The Solar Explosion".
I originally put the Solar Technology Report behind a paywall and made it available exclusively to Skywert customers as a PDF version (previously €899).
On Thursday, however, The Economist published an excellent essay entitled "Sun Machines", which - as expected - attracted many skeptics and raised many doubts about its predictive quality, and I decided to make my argument and forecasting model available to a much wider audience.
I think The Economist is right. Solar will supply all of the world's electricity needs sooner than anyone currently expects. The Economist has modeled the future of solar based on current exponential growth factors.
In my analysis and forecast, I went one step further and calculated growth factors that model the impact of other exponential growing technologies - especially AI - on the exponential trajectory of solar technology.
I believe that The Economist's model will prove to be more accurate than any leading forecast from any reputable forecasting institution. However, I am convinced that The Economist's model will turn out to be too conservative - assuming that the current exponential progress in AI continues at the current rate.
As you can read in the summary of the Skywert report on solar technology, I expect solar energy to reach a capacity of 33 TW by 2030, meeting 100% of current and projected global electricity demand.
If you've read our summary and the "Sun Machines" essay from The Economist - and you are still curious to learn more, you can now order and read the Skywert report in book format for only $9.99 / €8.99 as a Kindle version from any Amazon store worldwide.
If you prefer a PDF version, you can now buy the Skywert Solar Technology Report at a discounted price of €9.00 (€890 off) by using the discount code
BOOKLAUNCH24If you're curious about what's in the book, check out the table of contents below, read the description and back cover on Amazon, and download a free sample via Amazon Kindle.
That's it for today! Until next weekend, as usual, with a new Skywert analysis briefing - not on solar, promised.
Greetings from Playa de San Juan, Spain,
Marius Schober
Table of Contents
Foreword
Introduction | Exponential Growth and our Linear Bias
Part I: Solar Technology
Introduction to Solar Energy
Energy from the Sun
Harnessing the Sun’s Energy
The Untapped Potential
AGI as Solar Accelerator
AGI as Solar Accelerator
Potential Breakthroughs
Improving Efficiencies
The Solar Singularity
The Solar Market
A Brief History
Key Advantages of Solar Energy
Key Disadvantages of Solar Energy
Market Overview
Drivers of Growth
Major Players
Supply Chain Overview
Market Segmentation
Economics
Forecast Scenarios
The Exponential Trajectory
The Optimistic Realistic Outlook
Drivers of Exponential Growth
Part II: Skywert Forecast Model
Assumptions and First Principles
A. Methodology and Approach
B. Key Inputs, Variables, and Modeling
C. Modeling the Impact of AGI on Solar Technology
Key Findings and Projections
Skywert Forecast Model (2024-04) (as a table and as a web version)
Forecast Scenarios Year-by-Year
Limitations
Part III: The Investor’s Perspective
The Investor’s Perspective
Stock Investment Opportunities
Identifying High-Potential Solar Stocks
Portfolio Construction
Growth Investment Ideas
Value Investment Ideas
Private Equity Investment Opportunities
Venture Capital & Growth Equity
Private Equity
Entrepreneurial Investments
Key Players in the Solar Industry Landscape
Leading Research Institutions
Leading Companies
Promising Startups
Infrastructure Companies
Sectors Benefiting from Cheap Energy
Conclusion
Concluding Words