Skywert Solar Technology Forecast | #1

Solar's Exponential Rise Reshaping the Energy Landscape

The global energy landscape is undergoing a tectonic shift, catalyzed by the confluence of two exponential forces—solar power and artificial intelligence (AI). This briefing examines the profound implications of this convergence and the investment ideas it unlocks. It includes a comprehensive forecast model that projects the future trajectory of solar technology, enabling investors and decision-makers to anticipate and capitalize on the emerging opportunities and challenges.

Solar photovoltaics have crossed an inflection point, achieving decisive cost-competitiveness versus fossil fuels. This economic disruption is self-reinforcing—as deployment scales, manufacturing efficiencies compound, perpetuating solar's cost descent. Simultaneously, the "solar supremacy zone" where it undercuts all alternatives is rapidly expanding outward from the equator.

As AGI emerges within this decade, its impact could supercharge this energy transition. Intelligent systems will optimize solar deployment, grid management, and energy distribution—maximizing utilization and accelerating the renewable disruption. AGI's exponential capabilities could unlock breakthroughs in storage, transmission, and solar cell efficiency.

This convergence presents an asymmetric opportunity for investors to capitalize on mispriced assets, disruptive business models and ultimately build the future. Incumbents tethered to legacy systems face existential risks, while innovators harnessing solar-AGI synergies can reap exponential rewards. Those comprehending this paradigm shift can position at the forefront of a multi-trillion-dollar energy revolution.

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Executive Summary

Research

• Today's solar technology is 50 to 100 years ahead of what the IEA forecasted in 2010 and 30 to 40 years ahead of the IEA's forecast from 2014

• Global solar energy market projected to reach $285.89 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.95%

• Leading countries in solar adoption are China, the United States, Japan, India, and Germany with the key driver being the Asia-Pacific region

• Based on leading forecasts, solar PV capacity will increase 4–10 times above current levels by 2030

• The pure operating costs of a brand-new coal or gas plant exceed those of constructing and operating a new solar power plant of equal capacity

Analysis

• Economies of scale effects will lead to a 50% reduction in costs by 2027

• The present exponential momentum is sufficient to lead to the Solar Singularity, the event in which 100% of humanity's energy consumption is covered by solar power.

• The convergence of exponential advancements in artificial intelligence, materials science, nanotechnology, and biotechnology will lead to a solar cell efficiency of close to 100%

• Energy will be removed as a limiting factor to technological progress

• In 2033, electricity will become available as an unlimited subscription 

Skywert Forecast Model

• By 2030, solar energy will cover 100% of projected global electricity demand

• Installed solar capacity will reach 33 TW by 2030

• Global electricity consumption will enter a phase of exponential growth from 2030 on

• The Learning Rate of solar technology will grow in correlation to advancements in AI

• The LCOE of utility-scale solar will drop below $10 / MWh in 2027 and below $1.00 in 2031

• The LCOE of residential rooftop solar will drop below $1.00 per MWh in 2032

The full Skywert Solar Technology Report is available for purchase:

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary

• Table of Contents

• Part I: Solar Technology

  • Introduction to Solar Energy (page 6-8)

    • Energy from the Sun

    • Harnessing the Sun’s Energy

    • The Untapped Potential

  • AGI as Solar Accelerator (page 9-11)

    • AGI as Solar Accelerator

    • Potential Breakthroughs

    • Improving Efficiencies

    • The Solar Singularity

  • The Solar Market (page 12-23)

    • A Brief History

    • Key Advantages of Solar Energy

    • Key Disadvantages of Solar Energy

    • Market Overview

    • Drivers of Growth

    • Major Players

    • Supply Chain Overview

    • Market Segmentation

    • Economics

    • Forecast Scenarios

  • The Exponential Trajectory (page 24-28)

    • The Optimistic Realistic Outlook

    • Drivers of Exponential Growth

• Part II: Skywert Forecast Model (page 29-45)

  • Assumptions and First Principles

    • A. Methodology and Approach

    • B. Key Inputs, Variables, and Modeling

    • C. Modeling the Impact of AGI on Solar Technology

  • Key Findings and Projections

  • Skywert Forecast Model (2024-04) (table)

  • Forecast Scenarios Year-by-Year

  • Limitations

• Part III: The Investor’s Perspective (page 47-64)

  • The Investor’s Perspective

  • Stock Investment Opportunities

  • Identifying High-Potential Solar Stocks

  • Portfolio Construction

  • Growth Investment Ideas

  • Value Investment Ideas

  • Private Equity Investment Opportunities

    • Venture Capital & Growth Equity

    • Private Equity

    • Entrepreneurial Investments

  • Key Players in the Solar Industry Landscape

    • Leading Research Institutions

    • Leading Companies

    • Promising Startups

    • Infrastructure Companies

  • Sectors Benefiting from Cheap Energy

  • Conclusion

• Support Our Work

• Disclaimer

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